Putin's Southern Gambit
It is of a nerving and perilous time that I start my political blog; on the borders of our continent the old checkered board of Imperial expansionism are being dusted down complete with 19th century pieces.
As I write the Russian military are leaving their bases granted to them by Ukraine to surround, occupy and disarm key strategic points of the Crimean Peninsula. This unilateral decision to interfere in the sovereignty of a foreign state is nothing short of expansionism and opportunism over the political troubles of a once-friendly nation. However Putin is not stupid. Occupying and annexing a foreign territory which contains a significantly sized ethnic group similar to that of Russia might well be popular with the people who live there. Despite contravening all international law Putin knows that the US-allied nations are powerless to stop him; Syria is a case-in-point. After all should we intervene, his idea of EU interventionism on former Soviet soil becomes qualified. However there is a more pertinent, strategic challenge. Crimea has a single, narrow land passage from mainland Ukraine. The shores of the peninsula are easily defended by the Russian Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol. As if a twist in history it is the Russians who are in logistical control of the area, to regain control will require a force capable of penetrating a strong Russian Navy backed up with a superior air power. Ukraine (and the EU) cannot do this alone.
This is not a good situation. If the US and EU give support to Ukraine it will validate a casus belli by Russia against other EU and NATO nations; indeed Latvia has called an emergency meeting of NATO to discuss threats to their border. A global war is the last we want.
So what options are available? Economic and personal sanctions against the Russian elite might not stop Putin's ideological adventure; he is hell bent on shifting the regional power back to Moscow. Ejection from the G8 will certainly isolate the Russian leaders both economically and diplomatically. Go further and threaten ejection from the Security Council is unprecedented. What about a controlled separation of the Ukraine? Let the pro-West regions go their way and the pro-Russian states the other. What is absolutely paramount is that these choices are made by Ukrainians and not aggressive neighbours.
War on the fringe of Europe threatens the peace and stability of our continent with no clear move available. The EU is pinned by illiberal imperialism on one hand and the escalation of violence on the other, but should liberty should be defended at all costs? The question is; will the EU take Moscow's opening gambit?
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